Home ยป Coverstory
Age vs. Advertisement: What makes a hit show?
By Jessica Renslow
How many people flip the channels daily searching for one of their favorite TV shows only to discover that it has been pulled from the lineup? Show cancellations and schedule changes are a common practice. However, the process behind the termination or rearranging of a program is still vague to some viewers. Who exactly decides what makes a show worthy to run for another season? Most people have heard of ratings, but do not exactly know how they are created. After sixty-six years of rating America's media programming, many viewers still do not exactly understand what it is that Nielsen Media Research does. How is Nielsen influencing the general public's entertainment experience?
Nielsen is a vague concept in the back of the American conscious. Just about everyone knows of the company, but most folks don't have a clue as to where its head quarters are located, or what exactly happens within those walls. The combination of having very publicly accessible data and rather private offices leaves Nielsen with an imposing reputation. It brings to mind a corporation of comic book proportions, when in actuality it started the same way as many companies of its generation, through ingenuity.
The whole system began with a Midwestern market analyst named Arthur Nielsen. Arthur Charles Nielsen Sr. of rural Illinois founded the ACNielsen Company in 1923. He was a pioneer in the field of marketing research. Before Nielsen, test marketing was an underused source of research. Most companies used mass marketing campaigns, which proved to be very costly. This norm caused companies to over extend their budgets because they couldn't determine the viability of their product before placing it in the market. The companies would go bankrupt from over stocking stores with their merchandise and not understanding their consumers' demands.
By using focus groups and store sales records, Nielsen revolutionized marketing. He created a way to successfully chart and predict a market trend. In a pre digital network era, Nielsen's techniques were especially important in tracking supply and demand in a certain market. This gave companies a way to specify the demands of their customers before introducing a new ad campaign. The system proved to be invaluable with the stock market crash of 1929 and its aftermath, The Great Depression.
Always innovative, Arthur Nielsen began to apply his statistical analysis to immerging media. Nielson introduced the world to the National Radio Index for broadcasters and advertisers in 1942, which was followed by the TV ratings service in 1950. This forever changed the face of American media. By creating a way of retrieving statistical records of all U.S. radio/TV programs viewed per day, Nielson inadvertently created a new form of censorship.
The tycoons wanted to make the most of their profits, which is where Nielsen's data collecting came in. From these stats his clients were able to then link their products to certain shows and schedule lineups. Nielsen's clients became privy to helpful insights. Instead of linking their products to any old program, they now had conclusive data to help them decide which shows to back. If the client did not agree with the content of the show, or feared that it might alienate their consumers they now had proof that it was profitable to pull their support. Without financial backing many shows were cut. This led the remaining shows to fear cancellation as well. By trying to remain in the good graces of their sponsors the shows began to take fewer chances. This stifled creativity in the long run and aided in censoring the media.
To this day, Nielsen clients are not just interested in what is being watched, but who is watching it and when. These clients want to know things like do parents giggle at Big Bird with their kids, or if Latino teenage males enjoy the latest sitcom airing on CBS at 8pm. There is a connection between Huggies, Windex and Max Factor all running together in a ninety second commercial slot. Companies know how to target consumers because of Arthur Nielsen's methods. This has changed the American audience from being seen in its former incarnation as viewers to its current role of consumers. Consequently TV and Radio programs have gone from being works of art to sellable commodities.
Rita Majkut, producer of many children's programs, explains that, "For someone in development or programming, the ratings are enormous. People clamor to get them every day. They are a report card. If all your shows fail, you're going to be looking for another job soon. For a producer, the ratings are just a mirror of what is successful on television. If you are fortunate enough to have a show that continues through the next season, then the reality on the ground changes. The ratings can certainly help you decide if a new character was the great idea your vice president of development thought he would be. But television is a revolving door. The development executive who championed Desperate Housewives was fired before that show ever aired."
So how and where exactly does Nielsen get the information for its ratings? The company collects both tuning and demographic data. This data comes from what is being viewed (tuned) and also the composition of the audience (demographic). Nielsen accumulates this data for both national and local programs.
Nielson randomly selects families based on different demographics. They do this to remain statistically accurate. This is why the company cannot accept volunteers for its media research. By removing the random element of the process the stats would be considered compromised.
Nielson has certain hub centers that it focuses on. Usually these places are major U.S. cities and their surrounding suburbs. Once the geographic hub has been assigned the Nielson interviewer begins calling homes from a giant list that has been generated electronically from the local phone book. The interviewer will ask a few basic questions about the family and their viewing habits and then find out if they are willing to become a "Nielson family".
Depending on the on the desired demographics of a particular survey, not all families contacted by Nielson will be eligible to participate. People who work in the entertainment business or have immediate family members employed in it are disqualified from partaking in the project. There are some perks to being a Nielsen family. By agreeing to join the survey part of the family's cable bill is subsidized.
Nielson has to cross match its stats with those of the U.S. Census. Based on the number of TV owning households determined by the census, Nielson then decides the demographic makeup (race, age, income and more) required of its media research. Most of the media surveys concern the 18-to-49 year-old demographic because this age group is seen as the prime consumer market.
One example of this cross matching is the percentage of African American Nielsen families. Between eleven and twelve percent of Nielson families are African American. According to the U.S. census, 11 to twelve percent of all TV households in the United States of America are classified as African-American. By keeping percentages aligned with the census, Nielsen attempts to compose as accurate a research base as possible.
Nielsen has two ways of receiving data for their rating system. The first form of data collecting comes from a "Set Meter". Set Meters are small devices that are hooked into every TV in the selected viewer's home. Through these devices the viewing habits of the household are collected in a "Home Unit", which is connected to the phone line and is automatically retrieved by Nielsen computers at the operations center in Oldsmar, Florida every night. The data is then processed that same night and the information is released to the television industry the next day.
Starting each night at 3 a.m., Nielsen collects data from approximately 25,000-metered households. This means that the company processes approximately 10 million viewing minutes a day and makes more than 4,000 gigabytes of data available. The data is transmitted in a raw code form.
The system will highlight any problems with the data from an individual household. It will then analyze the problem and determine the best way to ratify the issue. Sometimes this just requires a phone call from the operations center in Florida to gather further viewing information from the household. However in some instances a Nielsen Representative will venture to the household and repair, or replace the House Unit. Other times the representative (yes they are everywhere) is sent to the home to reeducate the viewers on how to use their Set Meter.
The second way Nielsen retrieves data is through a personal log kept by the viewer that the company refers to as a "Diary". These diaries are composed of lengthy surveys created by Nielsen to track the viewer's daytime and nighttime TV watching habits during Sweeps. Approximately 1.6 million surveys are taken from different demographics and then sent to Nielsen during sweeps periods (February, May, July and November). The diaries are important because they usually focus on smaller markets not automatically calculated by the control center.
Some members of the general public feel that they have never met a Nielson family. There is a reason for this secrecy. The families are asked not to reveal that they are among the research panel. This protects the families' privacy and the integrity of the project. If the family decides to reveal themselves to the public they are removed from the metered research, and if they have been keeping a dairy it gets thrown out.
These surveys have been conducted for almost seventy years. That means that literally hundreds of thousands of Nielson families have been involved with the process.
So do these stats really effect what America watches? Absolutely. Sometimes shows will get bumped before even airing. This was the case for NBC's the Baby Borrowers. The network had been touting the new reality series for a few weeks last winter when it suddenly decided to pull it only 22 days before its scheduled debut.
NBC decided to introduce My Dad is Better than Your Dad on Mondays at 8pm in February of 2008 instead. The network came to this decision by examining the fact that their show American Gladiators was dominating the Monday night slot. With the final episode of American Gladiators on the horizon, CBS was looking for the best way to keep their current Monday night audience.
Both shows were reality programs with sports themes, whereas Baby Borrowers was tailored for a different audience. NBC wanted to retain the momentum already created by American Gladiators by hoping to hold on to their audience with another sports themed reality TV show. This was a lesson NBC perhaps learned from a 1998 CBS misjudgment over the popular series, Dr. Quinn Medicine Woman.
Ms. Majkut also shared that, "In live action, you have more wiggle room. But, again, scripts have been written and production is underway before a show is broadcast and ratings start coming in. It would take deep pockets and a lot of will to stop production and make changes. The most common outcome of bad ratings is a cancellation."
Can a show beat the numbers game? Usually not, but it can morph into a new form. Such was the case with the 1960s cult classic Star Trek and the 1990s surprise hit Dr. Quinn: Medicine Woman. Both of these series took the networks by surprise and resurfaced through the loyalty of their unexpected fan bases.
The original Star Trek only had a three-year run from 1966-1969.The faithful fans however proved that there was a enough of a following to support four additional live action series (Star Trek: The Next Generation 1987-1994, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine 1993-1999, Star Trek: Voyager 1995-2001, Star Trek: Enterprise 2001-2005) and even a short lived animated spin off, Star Trek: The Animated series 1973-1974. There have also been ten movies made with an eleventh in progress. How did the Trekkers, often mislabeled as Trekkies, receive these results?
With the initial cancellation of their beloved show, the Trekkers launched the most aggressive letter writing campaign that NBC, or any network for that matter, had ever faced. On top of that, they also created a forum through the now infamous Star Trek Conventions. Proving to the networks that there was a viable demand for the product, resurrected the franchise. The basic concept of supply and demand was reinforced.
With the case of Dr. Quinn: Medicine Woman CBS got a surprise hit in the traditional ratings dead zone of Saturday evening. The show was targeted towards males and females ages18-to-49, but by the sixth season most of the viewers were women past their fifth decade. The show lasted six seasons and was then suddenly and unceremoniously cut after both the network and Jane Seymour, the show's star, had announced a seventh season.
The cancellation of Dr. Quinn was unusual in many respects because it was still a highly rated program at the time of its termination. In a message, dedicated to her fans in 1998, concerning the cancellation of the program, Ms. Seymour is quoted saying, "As you might imagine, I was stunned and devastated to realize that winning our time slot every week for 6 years and having a loyal global audience meant nothing. (She points out further in the message) I know that, Medicine Woman finally fell victim to its perceived demographics, but I wonder if the pulse-takers and number crunchers are as accurate as they would like us to believe."
Though no one, not even Seymour, was ever given an official answer to the rational behind the network's choice to cancel the program, it has been rumored that Dr. Quinn was axed because CBS was trying to court a younger audience with the show Martial Law. It was implied that a series like Dr. Quinn: Medicine Woman was a hard sell to advertisers due to the audience composite.
The fan base for Dr. Quinn became so irate over the program's cancellation that their reaction to the situation even shocked CBS chief, Les Moonves. He claimed that the flood of letters and emails protesting the show's cancellation was a backlash that he had never seen before, nor anticipated. This led to a highly unusual event, the production of two made for TV movies.
The first film produced was entitled, Dr Quinn: the Movie and it was plagued with a lot of issues. Due to creative differences with CBS, Beth Sullivan, the show's creator, declined to be apart of the project. This complication combined with CBS's lack of promotion led to dismal ratings. Surprisingly the network was willing to basically admit defeat and allowed Beth Sullivan complete control of the second made for TV movie, Dr. Quinn the Heart Within. The film ended up placing first in the ratings race the night of its premiere. In hindsight CBS may have misjudged their audience as the short-lived and ultimately forgotten Martial Law did not prove to be a worthy ratings successor to the still popular western melodrama.
What makes the Dr. Quinn situation so interesting is the barely veiled ageism involved. A network had a successful show that happened to appeal to an audience outside of the traditional prime advertisement target. Were these people ironically seen only as viewers? Woman over fifty not being considered consumers seems a little strange. With 98% of U.S. households owning at least one television and 37% of U.S. citizens aged 45 and older it would seem that this system might be in need of a face-lift.
Networks may have to start rethinking their concepts of audience demographics as related to advertising. With the baby boomers hitting their senior years and Nielsen still targeting the under fifty population, a lot of potential money could be lost due to antiquated ageist standards based on data collected from previous generations. The grandmas and grandpas of today are more media savvy then their parents ever were. The idea that they cease being viewers, or more appropriately, consumers after they hit fifty shows a lack of market understanding. The demand will be there. The question is who will supply it?